Climate change in Australia
BoM and CSIRO remind Australian Ski Industry of the bad news. 22 March 2010
Source: mountainwatch.com | LINK
Snowball fights in jeopardy? Image - Falls Creek
Words - Aaron Cook, Mountainwatch.com Meteorologist
Climate change is real and humans are to blame. That’s the message from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO, who this week released a document called State of the Climate, which paints a picture of what’s happened to our climate since 1960 and the changes yet to come.
So if the Bureau and CSIRO are so sure, why is there still so much debate about this in the media? And more importantly, what is all this going to mean for the snow-pack at your favourite Australian resort?
One of the main reasons for the debate in the media, sadly, is poor journalism. Token right-wing columnists on the nation’s newspapers are stirring up mischief at every turn, because that’s what they’re paid to do. They trumpet the demands of sceptics for more debate on the issue and ask for action to be put on hold until we know for sure.
Greenhouse gases to blame
But here’s the truth: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), made up of scientists from the world’s most respected scientific organisations, has been having this debate for over 20 years.
In 2007, the Fourth IPCC Report concluded it is more than 90 per cent likely greenhouse gases released by humans are to blame for most the observed climate change since the mid 20th century. There is no new research or finding since 2007 that puts this in doubt.
If the climate was Dirty Harry, then this is the moment where Clint Eastwood is pointing a .44 Magnum at our heads and asking us “do you feel lucky, well do ya punks?” You can have more debate if you like, but when the stakes are this high and time is running out to make changes, I’m going to back the 90 per cent favourite.
Snow cover has decreased
So what about the snow? Will there be less or more? What will happen to the length of the season?
To get some answers, first we need to look at the general effects of climate change on Australia described in the State of the Climate report: Between 1960 and 2009 Australia’s average temperatures rose by about 0.7°C. In roughly the same period there’s been a 30 percent decrease in snow cover at Spencer’s Creek, one of the key measuring sites for the Snowy Hydro Scheme.
If the world’s greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels, temperatures are predicted to rise by another 0.6 to 1.5°C by 2030 and by 2.2 to 5.0°C by 2070. This will include warmer temperatures in winter and that’s bad news for snow.
What does 1°C warmer mean?
Take Thredbo for example, where the average daily minimum temperature in May up near Eagle’s Nest (1957m) is -1.3°C and the maximum is 5°C. A 1°C rise in average temperature by 2030 will mean temperatures spend more time above the freezing level and so any snow laid down in May is more likely to melt.
What’s more, warmer temperatures will reduce the number of nights that snow-making equipment can be used during May and June. Taking all this into account, I would guess the average start of the season would be pushed back a couple of weeks.
Then in the middle of July, where the average daily maximum at Eagle’s Nest is now -0.1°C, we’ll get more days when the temperature reaches above freezing. This is likely to mean more snow-melt during the day and poorer skiing conditions.
The number of days with record hot temperatures has increased each decade over the last 50 years, at the same time there have been fewer record cold days. 2000 - 2009 was Australia’s warmest decade on record
Shorter season
And finally in September, when the season is wrapping up, warmer conditions will accelerate the rate of snow-melt and frustrate the snowmakers. I would put my money on the season finishing a week or two sooner than normal. With the expected 0.6 to 1.5°C rise by 2030 the snow industry could be facing major challenges.
This is just back of the envelope stuff. But even back in 2003, a CSIRO study predicted an increase of 1°C could lead to reductions of 30 to 40 days in season length. In addition, the study predicted the cold conditions required for snow-making will occur less often and the snowline will rise about two hundred metres, greatly reducing the amount of ski-able terrain.
Kevin Hennessey, who leads the climate change risk adaptation and policy team at CSIRO, says the 2003 study is still the best research on the effect of climate change on snow in Australia but there are plans for additional research.
Snow on the snowgums could become a rare sight. Image - Falls Creek
Continued…
Making snow
“The study needs to be updated to include the latest information on snow trends and the latest projections for climate in Australia,” says Hennessey, “and we need to make better allowance for developments in snow-making technology”.
Neil Thew, Business Development Manager for Perisher Resort, says the advances in snow-making technology over the last few years have been significant, allowing more efficient use of energy and water. Perisher has spent more than $19 million on snow-making equipment in the past three years.
Over 50 hectares of terrain are now covered by snow-guns and last year the resort produced 620,000 cubic meters of snow, a 50% increase on 2008. “We’ve made that investment with the full intention of skiing into the future,” says Thew. “We’re taking steps to ensure there’s better certainty for our guests.”
Changing the face of the alpine region
But try as we might to make snow, the atmosphere is still going to be the main source of this white gold. Winter rainfall over Southern Australia is expected to decrease in the future, but there’s a lot of uncertainty in these predictions.
What’s more certain is that with warmer conditions some precipitation that would have been snow will fall as rain. This change will pack a double punch - not only will less snow fall - but the increased rain will affect the snowpack.
Less snow is not just bad news for skiers. Reduced snow packs will threaten plant species that have adapted to the cold conditions. Catherine Pickering, an environmental scientist from Griffith University in the Gold Coast, says there are 21 species of plants, such as the “Snow Patch Daisy”, and “Dwarf Flea Bane”, that will be forced out by other plants colonising the once snowy terrain.
“These are plants that are naturally very slow growing and very low growing,” says Pickering.
“They’re only going to be a few centimetres tall with these lovely flowers that are often under a centimetre in size and it’s those sorts of things that are adapted to very specialised habitats that are going to be lost.”
A global issue
What about skiing in the rest of the world? Across the ditch in New Zealand, things are a bit more complicated. According to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research based in Auckland, warmer, moister air could result in heavier snowfall events. But the snow season is expected to be shorter and the snowline to rise.
In fact, shorter seasons and rising snowlines are predicted at most ski resorts around the world, giving those resorts at higher, colder elevations a distinct advantage. It’s clear that a warmer climate will be bad news for the ski industry around the world.
Let’s be really pessimistic and assume the worst case scenario for 2070 - a 5°C rise in temperatures, which is looking more likely given the failure of the world’s leaders to reach any agreement on cutting emissions.
The average daily minimum temperature in July for Eagle’s Nest at Thredbo would rise from -5.3°C to -0.3°C. Temperatures, even at 2000m, will spend most of the time above freezing. Snow will still fall. It might even hang around in patches for a few weeks. But my bet is if humans don’t do enough to cut their greenhouse emissions, then by 2070 you can kiss the snow industry in Australia good-bye.
What does this mean for the snow industry and how is the industry working to ensure its survival? Read Mountainwatch.com’s industry response (below)
Download the State of the Climate Report here
Climate Change - The Positives for the Snowies. 23 March 2010
Source: mountainwatch.com | LINK
Image - Falls Creek
Words - Tess Cook
Mountainwatch.com’s meteorologist Aaron Cook ended his article with “my bet is if humans don’t do enough to cut their greenhouse emissions, then by 2070 you can kiss the snow industry in Australia good-bye”.
But what might the CSIRO’s State of the Climate report mean in practical terms for the snow industry and those involved in snow sports and is the outlook as pessimistic as our own meteorologist makes it appear?
In the end though, the best answer has to be to put every effort into halting the effects of climate change. Cook says that if humans make an effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the forecast could become more positive.
For more information on the ways the Snow Industry of Australia is facing climate change visit the Alpine Resorts Coordinating Council’s website
Ouch, thats not sounding too healthy!! NZ forecast was not as bad, more time over there I guess.
Even though CSIRO scientest are being quoted..
I still believe chicken little is shouting about the sky falling when it is just an acorn falling from a tree.
I do like reading these articles though and believe it is important to create hysteria in order to make humans change their ways.
My defence: (bare with me) humans CAN NOT create a year without summer through CO2 pollution or any other contaniments we excrete or attemps we make. An erupting volcanoe releases more toxins in 10min than we can in a year - it would only take weeks to equal what the human race has done since we climed out of the trees. The last time this happened was proir to 60 years ago (the time period this document is based on), when it did happen (1815) europe had snow the entire summer of 1816 and the eruption was in the southern hemisphere (Mount Tambora in Indonesia). Proper world wide climate and weather observations have only been documented since WW2 when USA needed them for their Pacific campaign. Before then local observations were done in small towns/villages by monks in europe - the oldest known goes back 250 years.
Our best equipment (supercomputers) can only accurately predict weather 2-3 days away. So I could easily flip the percentages of predicted snow level in 30 years (let alone 70) to be: By the year 2040 we will have so much snow ski lifts will be built at Bulli, NSW and the Alpine region will be inaccessable.
Chicken Little gathered a huge possie of followers, they all believed and convinced themsleves the sky was falling.
Yes the climate is changing - change is the ONLY constant. But humans are not the only cause.
Interesting points spaz. I have actually read some pretty convincing articles on global cooling (not that I believe it). One thing which is constantly mentioned in relation to global cooling is the volcanoes. There are so many factors involved in climate change, including natural climate cycles. However it is hard to ignore the melting glaciers and ice caps. It’s scary to see how much mass they are losing at such a rapid rate which is exponentially increasing. The consequences of melting ice can and will be catastrophic for millions of people. It’s not just rising seas, but damage to agriculture, damage to ecosystems, and bigger storms will all be in effect. I know what you’re saying, but when it comes to the Earth we shouldn’t be leaving it to chance. I think humans owe it to the planet we inhabit to take a cautious path. We can change our behaviour, so why don’t we? In my opinion not nearly enough is being done about climate change, and I feel one day our future generations will again be discussing the mistakes of the past.
Climate change threat to $1.8b snow industry
source The Bush Telegraph link
Wednesday 16 October 2013 11:14AM
Image:A SNOWBOARDER ENJOYS THE LAST OF THE 2013 SNOW AT FALLS CREEK. (ROBERT CIANFLONE/GETTY IMAGES)
A government report obtained exclusively by Bush Telegraph reveals climate change could cut Australia’s ski season by more than two months, reducing snow depths by 80cm by 2050. As Greg Muller writes, the industry is concerned that artificial snow and summer tourism won’t be enough to sustain it.
The future of the alpine ski industry is on shaky ground, according to a government commissioned report, with ski seasons predicted to be up to 10 weeks shorter and snow depths considerably diminished.
In 2003, the CSIRO released a report called The Impact of Climate Change on Snow Conditions in Mainland Australia.
The snow industry in Australia is worth $1.8 billion and employs 18,000 people. This is economic value and jobs that are not in capital cities but in regional Australia.
COLIN HACKWORTH, SKI AREAS ASSOCIATION
Last year an update was written for Victoria’s Department of Environment and Primary Industries, but the Victorian government refused to release it.
Bush Telegraph received the update, Climate change impacts on snow in Victoria. through Freedom of Information.
The report predicts that by 2050 the maximum snow depth could decrease by up to 80 centimetres and the ski season might shorten by more than two months.
Dr Jonas Bhend from the CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research was one of the authors of the report.
‘The maximum snow depth [could] decrease by around 50 percent by 2050 in the higher elevation sites. Although in the lower elevation sites by 2050, the strongest emission scenario suggests the snow might be gone by then,’ said Dr Bhend.
‘The worst scenario is in 2020 the reduction is 30-40 per cent for the higher sites and by 2050 it’s 70-80 per cent.
‘It depends on what emissions reduction we decide on. At the moment we look like tracking the higher emissions scenarios.’
The latest report, coming 10 years after the original study, offers some valuable insights into the accuracy of earlier work.
‘We can actually compare the observed changes with the projected changes and we find there is a very good correspondence between the projected decrease in snow and the actual rate of observed decrease in the past decade,’ said Dr Bhend.
The 2003 report by the CSIRO predicted the amount of snow machines would need to increase by 100 per cent by 2020 in order to keep the industry profitable.
Colin Hackworth is the CEO of Australia Ski Areas Association, an industry body representing ski area owners and operators.
Mr Hackworth says this situation has already played out.
‘In the last 10 years, snow making capability has doubled. It’s something which guarantees people a holiday. Eighty per cent of skiers tend to stick to the beginner and intermediate slopes and it’s these slopes which will continue to be snow made,’ said Mr Hackworth.
continued…...
Image:CSIRO PREDICTS SHORTER SKI SEASON AND LESS SNOW DEPTH AT AUSTRALIA ALPINE RESORTS (CHRIS HOCKING)
Associate professor at the Centre for Tourism Research at the University of Canberra, Dr Tracey Dickson is studying the viability of alpine resorts and she says the stigma associated with snow making is now gone.
‘Fifteen years ago you’d never see a resort talk about their snow making capabilities, it was an embarrassment. Now it’s seen as a point of differentiation and a comparative advantage,’ she said.
However, Dr Jonas Bhend thinks the reliance on snow making is a short term fix at best.
‘If we are on a high emissions trajectory out to 2050 then even snow making is probably not going to cut the deal,’ he said.
Cheap airfares and a strong Australian dollar have lead many people to consider overseas destinations for their next ski holiday, countries like New Zealand and Japan where snow cover is more reliable.
Colin Hackworth is worried that regular reports predicting shorter seasons and less snow will drive the ski dollar offshore.
‘It is a very real risk and I think the Australian resorts need to band together and push back,’ he said.
‘This is something which is going to take a genuine partnership between governments and private industry.
‘The snow industry in Australia is worth 1.8 billion dollars and employs 18,000 people. This is economic value and jobs that are not in capital cities but in regional Australia.
‘The Snowy Mountains shire relies on the snow industry for 52 per cent of its employment. If the industry and government sits idly by then you will see investment and jobs leak overseas.’
Image:ALPINE RESORTS ARE TRYING TO ATTRACT SUMMER TOURISTS TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE (CHRIS HOCKING)
However, Mr Hackworth doesn’t think the resorts can attract enough year-round tourists to make up for the shorter snow seasons.
‘Whether it’s bushwalking, horse riding or cycling the reality is these are of relatively low yield and this means there won’t be a lot of investment put into these activities,’ he said.
But Dr Tracey Dickson disagrees and thinks we can learn from places where the off-season is as long as our ski season.
‘When you look at Canadian resorts with their mountain bike season they’re particularly short. They have about a two month mountain biking season and they have some fantastic mountain biking opportunities.
‘Whereas in Australia we have the reverse. We have a huge potential for growing something like mountain biking for six months of the year.’
Dr Tracey Dickson says this is climate change adaptation in action.
Dr Jonas Bhend, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Dr Tracey Dickson, Centre For Tourism Research at the University of Canberra
Colin Hackworth, CEO Australia Ski Areas Association
Producer: Greg Muller
Read the full report here It’s not pretty 
Image: ALPINE RESORTS ARE TRYING TO ATTRACT SUMMER TOURISTS TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE (CHRIS HOCKING)
Lucky I just bought a new DH bike… Now we just need some proper lift accessible DH trails/bike parks 
I’m perplexed!
Our current snow season is 18weeks but there is only a good 6weeks of money making.
It kind of reads that they are re-adjusting “the numbers” to give an honest representation of what all snow-reliant businesses already know.
Interesting points spaz. I have actually read some pretty convincing articles on global cooling (not that I believe it). One thing which is constantly mentioned in relation to global cooling is the volcanoes. There are so many factors involved in climate change, including natural climate cycles. However it is hard to ignore the melting glaciers and ice caps. It’s scary to see how much mass they are losing at such a rapid rate which is exponentially increasing. The consequences of melting ice can and will be catastrophic for millions of people. It’s not just rising seas, but damage to agriculture, damage to ecosystems, and bigger storms will all be in effect. I know what you’re saying, but when it comes to the Earth we shouldn’t be leaving it to chance. I think humans owe it to the planet we inhabit to take a cautious path. We can change our behaviour, so why don’t we? In my opinion not nearly enough is being done about climate change, and I feel one day our future generations will again be discussing the mistakes of the past.
Homosapiens evolved at a time with very little ice caps let alone any glaciers - our race exists because of extreme heat and high ocean levels, we survived a number of ice ages over 2 million years that allowed us to conquer all land mass on this planet.
It’s believed only 200 or so people left Africa and we all descended from that adaptable family
Only ice records from the last 100K years give us a history of the current cycle.
Leaving it to nature is exactly what we should do.
Fluctuations in climate happen, global warming cycles, oceans rise and fall. Mass extinctions happen.
What allowed our survival and to dominate all homoerectus over 2mil years is our ability to adapt.
Short term; what will keep the snow industry alive is our ability to adapt.
I believe the biggest question our future generations will ask is the same issue we are currently tackling; WHY ARE THERE SO MANY OF US?
If we are causing this current cycle and it will be so devastating to population numbers… maybe that’s a good thing…?
The planet cannot sustain our numbers or energy needs.
The planet won’t die - just the resources 8billion people require will.
Until the current period we were very good at killing one another.
Before then; mythology says the gods were very good at keeping our numbers at bay.
Now we have all but destroyed faith in the gods and have greatly eradicated humans that do such things maybe it’s the planets turn.
I believe the biggest question our future generations will ask is the same issue we are currently tackling; WHY ARE THERE SO MANY OF US?
If we are causing this current cycle and it will be so devastating to population numbers… maybe that’s a good thing…?
The planet cannot sustain our numbers or energy needs.
The planet won’t die - just the resources 8billion people require will.Until the current period we were very good at killing one another.
I think thats the most intelligent thing I have ever heard you say (or type) spaz 
Spaz I agree with you on almost everything you’ve written. I don’t really know what will actually happen and if scientists cannot predict the weather accuretely a week out how in fcuk can they honestly expect us to believe they know what will happen in 10-20-50 years from now.
I seem to remember reading that even though the arctic ice is melting the Antarctic ice cap has grown substantially in that same period but they don’t like talking about that one. Additionally, polar bears, the traditional face of climate change death have increased their population in recent years.
I’m all for reducing our impact on the environment but I don’t like pseudo science being used to scaremonger. It would appear that the green movement is trying to get it’s way through whatever means necessary even if that involves trying to scare people into submission.
Personally I believe that we are a bit of a parasite on the earth, our biggest problem is rampant overpopulation more so than anything else. The world seems stuck in this drive towards more is better. We have got it in our heads that for us to survive we need more people, constant growth and expansion, this is our biggest problem, the earth will hit critical mass for human population and then greenhouse gas and global warming will be the very least of our worries. I think this will occur far before global warming raises sea levels 2m or the temps rise so Melbourne is the new Hamilton Island.
I believe the biggest question our future generations will ask is the same issue we are currently tackling; WHY ARE THERE SO MANY OF US?
If we are causing this current cycle and it will be so devastating to population numbers… maybe that’s a good thing…?
The planet cannot sustain our numbers or energy needs.
The planet won’t die - just the resources 8billion people require will..
agreed Spaz, the problem is that there are so many of us. We look at ourselves as individuals, rather than as a species. We have a mindfulness, and it’s not proven that any other species has more than instinct.
There are just too many of us to sit comfortably on this planet, in the way we want, now, to live.
Leonard Shlain “Sex Time and Power” had some interesting thoughts on this.
and agreed, from earlier point, snow industry businesses have known all this for a long time. Well if they had any sense, and a few out there, lodges etc, don’t have that sense. Members still want to bury their heads in the sand and believe that “next” year will be better, and that we will continue to have 4 or so good seasons to 1 bad season, (rather than trending to 4 bad seasons and 1 good), so let’s continue to run with that for our business plan. Let’s continue to be reactive rather than pro-active and value-add or diversify somehow. It just isn’t going to work, and the RMB I think doesn’t see value in developing green season, especially at at our mountain. Well that’s my opinion. So where does all this leave us? Enjoy it while we can, I say!
The Planet’s Weather has been changing for Billions of years!!!!!
And Scientists reckon that we have done irreparable damage in the last 200 years, and if we don’t do something dramatic now, we face imminent peril!!!!!
Even if we do “Change” our way of life, do people honestly think that the Planet’s Weather will cease to Change?????
And as far as the old argument that there’s too many of us…..
We breed based upon an in built willingness for our Species to survive, just like all living creatures on this planet do!!!!!
Sometimes our environment has a big say in how “successful” we try to become, and sometimes we can adapt accordingly to benefit our position!!!!!
We haven’t always been Top Dog on this spinning ball, and we are kidding ourselves if we think that we will hold the Title forever and a day!!!!!
As far as being successfulness due to sheer numbers of our species population, we probably don’t even rate a mention in the top 10 as it is today!!!!!