count down… (SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY STARTED!!!)
Going from the observations of all resorts with a BOM weather station it looks like the whole 15cms plus thing is going to fail to materialise anywhere unless things take a big turn for the better in the latter half of today or tonight.
I never know where to look for radar images…
Does anyone know what the forecast for tonight is?
So just a normal night?
Couple of the radars appear to be down for maintenance but looking at the Yarrawonga one it would seem this band of precipitation is the one that’s needed. Pity the temps are above freezing now though, hopefully they drop before it gets to the snowies. Only problem is that for Vic resorts it seems to be heading almost directly east leaving only a small tail to hit there. It may intensify on it’s way and deliver the goodies to everywhere but I’m no meteorologist!
By “goodness” you must mean r41n because that is ideal right now.
I thought the 47mm they had on Monday and then the subzero themps they’ve had since were enough to freeze out the last bits of warmth from the ground. From what it looks like the freezing level will be a near thing for the lower elevations, pretty sure if that hits in the next 2 hours the top will be snow but the bottom will be rain.
Nothing stays cold (enough) through May. It will only take a few sunny days to melt most of what has fallen at most resorts. Wich even then wont hydrate the ground enough.
Perisher on the other hand has the elevation to use the manmade and pile it up enough to keep a fair amount for marketing (and for a base on Front Valley only).
They will stock pile this all they can then the week prior to opening push it around with groomers.
June and the opening weekend is set for a reason. It’s from around this date that ground temps are low enough to freeze the top layer of dirt if we get the moisture then.
Ocean surface temps are a good indicator. ATM we are still sitting around 20℃ even around SA it’s at 18℃.
The big one to watch is Adelaide and it’s daily high temps. When it’s getting down to 14℃ we’re in the zone.
In the past 7 days its gone 29℃, 30℃, 25℃, 19℃, 16℃, 16℃, 17℃.
For this weekend it’s forecast to be 20℃ in Adelaide.
Long term the best we have is 15℃ at the end of the month.
So there are a few degrees to go even when it’s cold.
^^^^^^
Thats some old school advice right there I tells ya!!!
Pre dates the internet easily.
Old school for sure - picked up the Adelaide info off a +50seasons elder.
AND IT WORKS
My way is observation not prediction so it’s not about guessing!
Well observation right now is telling me you’re probably going to get a fair bit of what you want Spaz based on the radar and obs at the moment.
There is a bit of dampness coming towards us and Hotham.
Talking to a mate up there today, it was still snowing
BOM obs for Perisher look like they got 20mm of rain and 5cms or so of snow. Thredbo’s weather station looks a bit broken so can’t tell there. Buller looks like it got a minimal amount of snow and about 16mm of rain. Hazarding a guess and saying Hothams precipitation gauge is rooted so no idea there and Falls a bit similar to Buller with maybe a bit more snow but similar amount of rain.
I expect it will keep snowing up high which marketing will froth over.
But little snow will hold until average temps drop and the base melts in. A good base needs to be packed down, usually by groomers, so it lasts all winter - it’s basically an ice sheet sitting on top of grass and shrubs. Rocks warm up in the sun and melt any snow near them.
This is Merrits, Thredbo this morn. Notice how the snow that fell has just blown off exposing the grass.
Grass is usually 2-5℃ warmer than dry dirt.
With mostly sunny days for the next 2 weeks I expect only a few patches will be left by the time the next system arrives.
The next system will be the one snowmaking will try to build a base on. Until then any r41n will be welcome because the sun is just going to melt snow anyway.