2016 Weather thread
Am keen on starting a rolling weather thread.
I guess you can post observations, forecasts, questions….anything really in here .
If anyone has any questions to ask, am all ears.
I mainly look at Perisher…know a bit about Thredbo and Hotham weather..
Throw in NZ and Japan and thats the extent of my knowledge.
As far as graphical outputs. I use
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/ (doesn’t look like pretty reading at the moment )... as well as using a bunch of other models (GFS, EC, AXS, NCEP ensembles)
@ozgirl asked me to have a look at the weather running up to the June LWE to give us an idea of what might encounter.
At the moment its looking a bit damp over the coming weekend 4th-6th June… then seems to get a bit colder towards the 7th into 10th June.
The models are super variable at the moment, however they are trending colder .
I think come this evening I will feel more optimistic.
Awesome!
Thanks for starting this years weather thread!
Fingers crossed we get some white stuff prior to next weekend!
Awesome!
Thanks for starting this years weather thread!
Fingers crossed we get some white stuff prior to next weekend!
I told you I would have happier news.
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
Sa-weet!
You can stick around if you are goign to bring news like that!
Awesome!
Thanks for starting this years weather thread!
Fingers crossed we get some white stuff prior to next weekend!
I told you I would have happier news.
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
Far out!!
After a heap of snowless openers in a row I decided to save the airfare and leave the locals to it.
Damn!
Might have to reconsider…
Seriously - every time i see that link all i can think of is “yeah. no”
LOL
Interestingly yr.no says no precipitation today and it is snowing already in Perisher!
Lets hop the much talked about clear snow event doesn’t happen!
interesting link donza. not sure what it was showing yesterday but I assume same as mountainwatch models which suddenly had 25 plus on for sun/mon. that’s out the window and looking at heavy rain. but its now showing similar totals late next week. the GFS matches up with that, which could be where its taken from. but 8 days is a long time in forecasting, and the impending trough coming down the coast is huge and will plat a significant part in what happens late next week. perisher will need it. that skinny cover they have will be obliterated by Monday.
anyone wanna throw in some figures for the coming season!
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=192&focus=mh
end of june 25cm
mid july 50cm
end july 75-80cm
mid aug 120
end aug 135
peak early sept 140-45
closing weekend 60-65
hope im wrong! lol
Always enjoyed reading/lurking about what you had to say about the weather Donza, good work! Will be looking here with interest… 
Always enjoyed reading/lurking about what you had to say about the weather Donza, good work! Will be looking here with interest…
Just FYI.
Yr.No is a Norwegian based model that uses a European model named EC (for short) .
For benefit of a simple explanation it divides the world into tiles, it then places the tiles all over the world at varying altitudes (overlapping) within those tiles (say roughly 15km sq) each location gets a forecast.
That forecast varying by altitude.
Its pretty much the most accurate 3 generational model… (1 gen is raw data, 2 gen is pretty pictures, 3 gen is collating that into a graphical display) .. As you go from 1 to 2 to 3 the accuracy diminishes .
Snowforecast (dot com) uses GFS. Its algorithums aren’t suited that well to Australia (nor Japan) .. Its good for NA and Europe.
Mountainwatch model ... jesus…where to start. Its simple. It purely plots temp vs moisture. Its pathetic
Snow is not simple.
The models are swinging wildly at the moment….. this morning Perisher was forecast 5 degrees warmer than this afternoon for noon tuesday. (the model runs roughly appear at 3am and 3pm ).
so lets see what it says in the morning and lets see tommorrow arvo.
(for the record this makes me smile , it looks colder mid week and less random)
I’ll explain later if anyone is interested ...daughter ...bed
Russian roulette!!!!!
Following with keen interest!
Looks better (good) this morning.
Via here
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
I’ll post something more substantial mid morning.
Interesting, YR says Falls Creek here will get rain all week but the mapping site I use (Wundermap) seems to say that there is a good chance of snow on the 7th and 9th with rain in between.
Fingers crossed we land on the right side of the coin flip.
The solid yellow circle around my pin drop there is the 5400 line. When that’s above Falls, we tend to get snow. I’ll keep an eye out over the next few days and see how much that changes though .
Interesting, YR says Falls Creek here will get rain all week but the mapping site I use (Wundermap) seems to say that there is a good chance of snow on the 7th and 9th with rain in between.
Fingers crossed we land on the right side of the coin flip.
The solid yellow circle around my pin drop there is the 5400 line. When that’s above Falls, we tend to get snow. I’ll keep an eye out over the next few days and see how much that changes though
Yeah…. yr.no for falls creek models at 1518m asl.
whereas Perisher it models at 1719m asl.
I think thats the difference between rain and snow….I see the snow level at 1600m or so for most of this event.
As well this is a slung upper level cold pool. Which favour NSW. As its cut off.
Re the wunder maps…I think they are just a reproduction of GFS?