2015 Weather Thread
Okay - there has been some discussions regarding the idea of a weather thread.
I thought i would start the thread.
We have another system fighting its way through the bight right now.
Anyone one have any thoughts on if it will deliver the goods?
Tambo? Donza?
Or Anyone else?!
based on the current gfs run, there will be snow sat-mon but not huge falls. fri
night is looking promising with a lot of moisture over the mountains. hopefully
the warm air coming will have cleared out by then. the link will show it, but will
change about 7 tonight. they always do. nothing is set in stone till 2-3 days out,
if at all…..
mid next week will be epic bluebird with light winds as another high dominates.
is say at this stage 15-20 totals from first light sat to mon arvo.but that will change
as well!
long range watch a system passing around the 1st aug.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=96&focus=mh
oh, and for those who surf. Monday arvo/tues look for a directional south swell to hit
exposed breaks. if your going to Fiji, Wednesday looks good at cloudbreak 
My focus has been on uN Zud for a week or so. I’m thinkingwe will catch this warm weather that’s currently pleasant in Chill Hill by the weekend, and then we’ll get some clear precip around the lakes. After that, should be cold and hopefully some snow if the freezing is low enough. Can’t say the charts are what we were hoping for, but beggars can’t be choosers, and hey, there’s over 2m of base. That’s always gonna be good somewhere. Major concern is thunderstorms that push through prefrontal… Had enough of those at Perisher over the years keeping us inside.
Holidays with no kids? What ever the weather, it’s a winner!
Tomorrow got upgraded to snow and no rain but I still think it’ll be quite sago like down in the village here at Falls. Likely r*** up in NSW unfortunately.
Sunday looks the goods but again I think it’ll be boarderline too warm for decent pow. Either way, I’ll be waking up for first lifts on Monday 
Pissing down in Thredbo and even the wind chill isn’t freezing.
I don’t trust any weather prediction. I trust what I see. Even when it comes to surf, 20 mins can change conditions.
The best and only weather advice I go by is;
“Tomorrow will be the same as today +-5%”
95% of the time it is accurate (5% allows for a change) - which are better results than the weather computers give; even one day out.
Nerds are pretty happy with this weekend, also end of the coming week.
I don’t trust any weather prediction. I trust what I see. Even when it comes to surf, 20 mins can change conditions.
This^
I swear If i hear someone else who I’snt a meteorologist say El Nino one more time im gonna stab them in the jaw.
Loving Bazza so far, and he hasn’t even given us his best yet!
Looking forward to tomorrow!
Onya Bazza.
But of a windy day at Cardies, but snow in great condition. Forecast for showers and snow this Argo… Never eventuates, in fact bluebird end to the day. Bazza seems to be lurking with prefrontal rain tomorrow… But we will see what happens. Sometimes you have to take the bad to get the good. Just so long as the thunder stays away. ☔️
Drove up to Hotham around midday. A bit blowy and snowy but not too bad, didn’t need to put the chains on. I haven’t been out riding yet but the snow around the lodge looks nice and dry.
The 3rd - 5th August is looking good on Yr.No
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
They got the last system right minus the wind.
Snow pack is gunna take a big hit by the end of winter. Id say base will be back under 1m by sept 1.
This afternoon’s mountainwatch models don’t agree with you!
the charts have been bouncing around a lot the past few days. I woudnt be expecting dry pow. there is no feed of cold antarctic air with these fronts.
wet snow is better than rain, but spring is fast approaching and it looks like the base has reached
its peak. there looks to have been a lot of base melt the last week, so looks like that will be replaced.
I reckon thurs measurement will be about 145 at best. hope im wrong !