And the long range forecast is….
Cool thanks H0z will look at in more detail late. Gots to get my dancing shoes on!
Past years give no indication of what will happen this year. Neither does climate patterns like El Niño or climate change or SOI.
Science have never been able to predict a season with any accuracy, whatsoever (in Australia).
There is only one way to know what the snow will be like… when it has fallen.
After that the next best way is that most of the time it snows after it rains.
Snow rarely falls below 1500m and below that level no base holds. When it does it won’t stay more than a few days (apart from man made keeps a base).
Here’s a 99.999% accurate snow forecast.
Before August there will be a base to hold any snow that falls above 1500m.
Anything more than that is a blessing.
Interesting. I just read in the paper today that the Bureau is expecting a drier period for the next three months. I just hope it pukes down before/during the 2nd week of the school hols.
I give up on long range forecasts… I even give up on short range! It just helps soften the blow of SDS, that’s all!
Reserecting this thread to quote two people - for shit’s and giggles so we can look back and see who was right.
I couldn’t help it and looked up Frog’s Long Range Forecast
Frog hedging his beats
More snow the first week of July around the 5th-6th is also likely, although probably only light and up high. Following this the 10th-11th looks like we could see some light snowfalls. Although there is still a chance one of these could build into something stronger I see the best chance of a good dump of snow being across the 18th-20th of July.
Grasshopper doesn’t quite have his balls on the line but has been talking up the storm 5 - 7th for days now.
I still like the looks of a potential front due from the 5th to 7th July. I know that seems like a ridiculously long way out, but it is the widespread signal from all models that really has me paying attention. It could still all go horribly pear shaped. We’ll start to nail down the details early next week. Until then, have hope.
Read more: http://www.mountainwatch.com/snow-forecasts/Australia/Perisher#ixzz2XH4zoleG
Todays post by Grasshopper…
He has at least now given a tally.
Lets see what happens next week.
There is still a potential front due from the 5th to 7th July, but it’s only in the 10 to 20cm realm right now. I know that seems like a ridiculously long way out, but it is the widespread signal from all models that really has me paying attention. It could still all go horribly pear shaped.
Read more: http://www.mountainwatch.com/snow-forecasts/Australia/Perisher#ixzz2XN3RaOqY
Frog’s has not changed since yesterday.
So we have “Only high and light”
vs “10 - 20cm”!
Go Grasshopper go!
don’t forget Jane’s
I was about to say I don’t trust Mexican’s - then I gave it a look!
Jane’s is calling 20 - 40cms… 
God I hope so, I will be there for the tail end of that.
Jan hasn’t updated since Friday :-(
Jan hasn’t updated since Friday :-(
She only updates it 6-7pm each day, and I guess not weekends.
Forum chatter is still a bit mixed about what’s going to happen.
Jan hasn’t updated since Friday :-(
She only updates it 6-7pm each day, and I guess not weekends.
Forum chatter is still a bit mixed about what’s going to happen.
Ah okay!
Will check tonight then.
Haven’t looked at the weather boffins over there…
Please let this be the messy bit where it all goes to shite and comes back good!!
Opinions seem to vary between 10cm and 50+ Here’s hoping for the latter. There is also talk of a massive system around 14th July.